Bot Titles
POL-MARKET-COPY-V1Performance So Far
POL-MARKET-COPY-V1Recent Fire Attempts
POL-MARKET-COPY-V1Token Reverters (24h)
POL-MARKET-COPY-V1Biggest Block
POL-MARKET-COPY-V1The strategy is upside-down, not just unlucky. 0% win rate across all 25 real trades — every one lost. The config bought near-certain outcomes (0.90-0.995) resolving within the hour: that risks ~$0.99 to make ~$0.01. At 99¢ the market already prices ~1% tail risk, and a single "sure thing" resolving the wrong way wipes ~99 winners — so 25/25 losses is the asymmetry working exactly as the math predicts, not bad luck. Two compounding faults: the copied "smart-money" wallets were never edge-audited (no demonstrable edge), and the CLOB order path carried an incrementNonce() replay/exploit risk. None of these are tunable parameters — it needs a different thesis, not a patch.
Fantasy
POL-MARKET-COPY-V1If we had some way to instantly remove this bot's biggest constraint — capital, latency, signal coverage, or counterparty risk — what would the world look like? (Pending creative assessment.)
Suggestions for Improvement
POL-MARKET-COPY-V1- 01CRITICALFlip the asymmetry (the core fix). The 0.90-0.995 buy band risks ~$0.99 to win ~$0.01 — one tail loss erases ~99 wins, which is why 25/25 lost. Redesign around mid-priced outcomes (~0.60-0.85) where reward justifies risk, or do not resume. This is a thesis change, not a parameter tweak.
- 02CRITICALAudit the smart-money wallet list before mirroring anything. The copied wallets produced 0% downstream win rate. Backtest each candidate on its own historical Polymarket P&L and only mirror wallets with a proven, persistent edge.
- 03HIGHClose the incrementNonce() CLOB replay/exploit risk before re-funding beyond the existing $43.29. Harden the order-signing nonce handling first.
- 04HIGHWiden market-type filtering beyond sports. Sports books are the most efficiently-priced, lowest-edge Polymarket markets; politics / crypto-event / news markets have slower price discovery and may actually carry copytrade edge.
Conclusion
POL-MARKET-COPY-V1Verdict (2026-05-26): SUSPENDED — promoted to the Polygon trading-bot slot, but do NOT resume without a strategy redesign. Polymarket whale-mirror copytrade, halted 2026-03-27 after 0% WR across 25 trades. It now holds the designated Polygon Trading-Bot slot (per Chef) so it stays visible up top, but its last config is a structurally guaranteed loser — buying 0.99 "sure things" for a 1% edge the tail risk eats (see Biggest Block). $43.29 USDC sits idle on the CLOB; the redeemer is stopped too (no open positions).
Reviving it needs a new thesis, not a restart: (1) flip the asymmetry — target ~0.60-0.85 outcomes where payoff justifies risk, not 0.99 near-certainties; (2) audit the smart-money wallet list — prove the copied wallets actually have edge before mirroring; (3) widen market filtering (politics / crypto-event markets behave differently than the sports books we copied); (4) close the incrementNonce() CLOB replay risk; (5) restart the redeemer with the daemon. Until (1)-(4) are done, funding it live just bleeds the $43.29. Honest status: a slot held open for a redesign, not a working bot.